Posted 9:11 PM

What is Herd Immunity?
"Herd" immunity is a theory which purports to explain how an entire group can be protected from disease. It is thought to result in protection of everyone once around 70% of vaccinated or otherwise immune individuals is reached, by preventing transmission of the virus to those who remain "unprotected", either because a vaccine didn't happen to work for them, or was too risky in their case.

In the case of SARS, the human race reaches herd immunity once either (a) there is a vaccine which everyone has access to and takes or (b) the disease has become so widespread that the numbers of people that have built natural immunity is so high that transmission of SARS is virtually stopped.

Unfortunately, the last scenario isn't feasible. Because such a large number of SARS patients require intensive medical treatment, if a significant proportion of the population developped SARS, health systems would break down and global economies would collapse.

The only hope at this stage is that SARS can be contained long enough for a vaccine or cure to be developped before the number of people infected gets out of control.

Posted 9:25 AM

Masks Are Useless
MSN - 7 April - Viruses, including the coronavirus that scientists believe may be the cause of SARS, are so tiny that they can easily pass through such barriers. Several studies even have shown that surgical masks fail to prevent transmission of the much larger mycobacterium tuberculosis, which causes TB. While the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises that people who have SARS wear these masks, they do not even recommend them for people in contact with those patients unless the infected person can't wear one. Wearing surgical masks outdoors, where virus-laden particles easily disperse, has even less value.

Posted 8:42 AM

The First Major Health Threat of the 21st century
WHO - Although the last decades of the previous century witnessed the emergence of several new diseases, SARS needs to be regarded as a particularly serious threat for several reasons. If the SARS virus maintains its present pathogenicity and transmissibility, SARS could become the first severe new disease of the 21st century with global epidemic potential.

Posted 2:11 AM

Another 1268 in quarantine
Toronto Star - Another 1268 people in the Toronto area were ordered into quarantine yesterday because of potential exposure to two cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) one an infected worker at Hewlett Packard Canada Ltd.'s Markham operations who was supposed to be in isolation and the other a student at Stephen Leacock Collegiate Institute in Scarborough.

Posted 11:09 PM

China accused over Sars death
BBC News - Hong Kong - Friends of a US citizen who has died from the mystery illness, Sars, claim he was moved to Hong Kong because China's authorities did not want another foreigner to die of the virus on the mainland.

Posted 8:43 PM

Officials 'frustrated' by those not isolating themselves after SARS exposure
Canada.com - TORONTO (CP) - Nearly 200 workers at a business north of Toronto were told to go into isolation Wednesday after public health officials learned a SARS-infected employee ignored instructions to stay home.

Doctor alleges Beijing cover-up over SARS crisis
The Scottsman - Beijing - The accusations of a cover-up came from Dr Jiang Yanyong, a retired chief of surgery at a Beijing military hospital. He said doctors and nurses at two other military-run institutions had told him there had been at least seven deaths in their hospitals and claimed there were 106 cases of the disease in Beijing - more than five times the figure given by authorities.

Posted 6:12 PM

WHO Daily Report :

Guangdong Healthcare System Praised
The team concluded that the health system in Guangdong responded well to the outbreak. The province has a health system in which every hospital at every level reports any new cases of SARS... However, the team found an urgent need to improve surveillance in the countryside to head off new outbreaks in rural areas. The team was further concerned by an increase in sporadic cases, which could not be linked to a particular transmission chain, as such cases raised questions about the adequacy of contact tracing.

Amoy quarantine Ending
The isolation order placed on Block E, Amory Gardens will expire at midnight, April 9. The Hong Kong Health Department has announced that residents, temporarily housed at camps, may return home after their flats have been disinfected by the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department.

Singapore Super Spreader
The health worker considered to be the index case in [the latest] cluster of cases may be the fourth “super-spreader” identified in Singapore.A “super-spreader” is a source case who has, for as yet unknown reasons, infected a large number of persons. Although transmission patterns of SARS remain incompletely understood, evidence suggests that such “super-spreaders” may have contributed to the evolution of SARS outbreaks around the world.

Mild SARS Spontaneous Remission - Vietnam
... The daughter’s husband, who attended the Hanoi French Hospital with his wife, had a mild febrile illness which was undiagnosed at the time and which resolved spontaneously. It is presumed that he had mild SARS and passed the infection to his father-in-law

No Assymptomacitc Carriers
...WHO epidemiologists maintain the view that asymptomatic transmission does not appear to occur. Nor does this case suggest a longer incubation period than currently assumed (2–7 days, with 10 days considered the rare maximum).

Posted 6:09 PM

Superspreaders and asymptomatic carriers:
National Geographic - Experts warn that some people may be so-called "superspreaders," or more prone than others to transmit the virus... One theory suggested by medical investigators is that infected people may carry the disease without suffering extreme symptoms. Healthy carriers of a disease are not unusual, the most famous of whom was Mary Mallon. Popularly known as Typhoid Mary, she spread typhoid fever in the United States without suffering symptoms herself. 

Adopted Chinese Children Pose SARS Risk :
Good Housekeeping - Last week, public health officials reported a Massachusetts woman adopted a 15-month-old girl from the city of Guangzhou who later developed SARS. The woman's aunt also became infected with the pneumonia-like illness ...

Posted 2:02 AM

SARS can be transmitted before the carrier shows symptoms
Canada.com - 7 Apr 2003 Dr. Allison McGeer, one of Canada's leading infectious disease specialists, contracted the disease from a staff member at the hospital. The health-care worker was not showing symptoms of SARS at the time, but went on to develop the disease. 

Posted 1:01 AM

Posted 11:39 PM

SARS forces Singapore churches to halt confessions
Reuters AlertNet, UK - SINGAPORE, April 9 (Reuters) -The Roman Catholic church has suspended confessions in Singapore due to the spread of the deadly SARS virus and priests will instead forgive all churchgoers for their sins, church officials said on Wednesday. SURELY THIS MEANS DAMNATION!!!

Questions from unofficial contributors:

1. Has the Pope OK'd this procedure?
2. Why not Confession by SMS as was used the the Philippines up until recently?
3. I haven't confessed in 20 years. Is it OK to come now and get in on this special?

Posted 11:32 PM

Govt warns of increasing SARS cases
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta - Director General for Communicable Disease Eradication and Environmental Health Umar Fahmi Achmadi toldThe Jakarta Post on Tuesday that SARS appeared to be on the increase in Indonesia despite the declining trend worldwide. According to Umar, the total number of suspected SARS cases rose to 16 on Tuesday, up from 12 on Monday, but only five are still being treated at Sulianti Saroso hospital.

(How come the WHO has no Indonesian stats??? Why are the Indonesian girls below on SARS high alert?)

Posted 8:45 PM

My SARS Questions & Observations
See Pic

1. Today, media in Canada reported,  "By yesterday, public health officials said, the number of probable and suspect SARS cases in [Ontario] stood at 188, and totalled 226 nationwide." However the WHO stats only recognise 90 cases in Canada to date. The who stats also indicate the death rate for SARS is unusually high in Canada (11% vs. global average of 3.6%). Do the Canadian SARS stats underestimate who widespread the problem is in Canada?
     
2. Likewise, the high death rate in Thailand (27%) and Malaysia (100%) suggest the number of cases are under-reported. Plus how are we to believe that Jakarta, on the main business traffic hub in South East Asia with significant flow from Singapore and Hong Kong, has remained untouched?
     
3. The only country where the growth rate of SARS is higher than Canada is the US. They, however, report "suspected cases" to the WHO as opposed to confirmed cases. Yesterday the WHO recorded 148 such cases in the States yet local transmission of the disease has been ruled out. Does that mean that ALL the cases are imported? How is this possible if Singapore has only recorded 6 imported cases and these have led to the local epidemic of 118 cases in total. Are the US authorities taking their eye off the ball?
     
4. Why is it that some countries stats seem to drop off the list... and then re-appear as in the case of Spain and Belgium..?
     
5. It's worth noting the difference between the charts Probably Cases by Date of Onset vs. Probable Cases by date of Report. This indicates that the epidemic is dying down however the fact that medical authorities have been playing a bit of catch-up when it comes to understanding the situation, things look like they're getting worse when they are not... Is this fair or just a case of lies, damn lies and statistics? The number of observations for the former chart is a mere 362 versus 1402 for the latter (blown out by Chinese numbers of course).
     
6. The CDC's travel advisory is as follows:
   "CDC has also issued a travel advisory, and health alert notices, which are being distributed at ports of entry to people returning from the three affected regions. CDC advises that people planning elective or nonessential travel to mainland China and Hong Kong; Singapore; and Hanoi, Vietnam may wish to postpone their trips until further notice. Because the epidemiology of SARS in Canada is significantly different with regards to community transmission, CDC is not issuing a specific travel advisory for Canada at this time." Just what does that mean???
     
   • Epidemiology: the sum of the factors controlling the presence or absence of a disease or pathogen

   One person suggested to me that this means hygiene in Canada is better than in other affected areas. I find it hard to believe that the standards of hygiene anywhere surpass those of Singapore.... and certainly not Toronto's Chinatown.
     
   It the epidemiology of the disease is so great in Toronto, why are the growth and death rates so alarming??? The WHO's advisory is rather more general: Screen anyone coming from an infected area... including Toronto.
     

Posted 7:24 PM

Study: Test May Determine Likely Fatal SARS Cases
Reuters, UK - WASHINGTON (Reuters) -An enzyme test that detects lung damage could help determine which patients are more likely to die from the respiratory illness SARS

China Still Covering Up SARS, Doctors Say
Reuters, UK -China's government, already under fire for having hidden an epidemic of deadly respiratory illness, is still under-reporting the number of cases, doctors said on Tuesday.

Roach theory on spread of SARS
News Interactive, Australia -Hong Kong deputy health director Leung Pak-yin said investigators were exploring the possibility that cockroaches might have been responsible for infesting Block E of the Amoy Gardens housing estate, where more than 240 residents were quarantined last week after 278 cases of SARS were discovered.

Fear Leads to Racism
Marathon: Rotterdam organisers ask Chinese to withdraw over SARS...
Channel News Asia, Singapore - Organisers of this Sunday's marathon in Rotterdam have asked two Chinese runners to pull out over fears of the deadly Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) which has killed over 100 people worldwide. China, the native country of Sun Yingjie and fellow runner Jin-Li, is believed to be where SARS originated (...and the home of another 1 bn unaffected people).

Available tests to detect Sars not fully reliable, says WHO
Bangkok Post, Thailand - ``The PCR (polymerase chain reaction) molecular test for detecting Sars virus genetic material is useful in the early stages of infection but produces many false negatives, meaning many people who actually carry the virus may not be detected,'' it said.

SARS Is Here to Stay, Hong Kong and Singapore Tell Citizens
New York Times - Health officials in Hong Kong and Singapore warned their citizens today that the agent that causes a mysterious respiratory disease had spread so far in their communities that it would be hard to bring it under control anytime soon, if ever.