|
Saturday, April 19, 2003
Posted
3:38 AM
Death Takes a Holiday
As many statisticians take the long holiday weekend away from SARS reporting, the WHO's collation of death stats should dip. This blogger is also taking some time off! Check back Monday. Tought Bug: Has the Virus Mutated?
Health officials have reported that SARS patients who live in Amoy Gardens are coming down with particularly virulent cases of the disease, as are health-care workers who have caught the virus from those patients. Twenty percent of Amoy victims needed intensive care, compared with about 10 percent of other SARS patients in Hong Kong. The symptoms of Amoy Gardens patients differ from the symptoms of other SARS patients in that a large percentage of Amoy Gardens patients developed intestinal problems. As in Hong Kong, the virus in Canada, has been more virulent than in the United States and is also characterised by more intestinal problems.
|
 |
|
Thursday, April 17, 2003
Posted
3:10 AM
SARSTRACKER ORIGINAL ANAYSIS Close but No Cigar
The Chart below compiles Singapore MOH stats to show how close they came to containing the virus before the "SGH cluster" set them back.... 
|
|
|
Wednesday, April 16, 2003
Posted
11:02 PM
SARSTRACKER ORIGINAL ANAYSIS And Now for the good news
10 recoveries in yesterday's Canadian stats mean their "real death rate" (see below) has dropped significantly (from 32.5% to 26%). 
|
|
Posted
2:17 AM
Three SARS babies delivered by Caesarean: One mother dies
The babies were delivered by Caesarean section to avoid complications from medicines used to treat Sars and because the mothers were seriously ill, Dr Hon Kam-lun told The Associated Press by telephone. All three tested negative for the coronavirus – the likely cause of Sars - but Kam-lun said the babies "increasingly resemble" Sars cases. On Tuesday it was reported that one of the mothers, a 34-year-old, had died. The other two young mothers are still alive. All three mothers were taking the anti-viral drug ribavirin, Kam-lun said, and doctors had been worried about side effects in pregnant women.
|
|
Posted
12:46 AM
Experiments on Monkeys Zero in on SARS Cause
NEW YORK TIMES, April 15 — Monkeys experimentally infected with a new coronavirus have developed an illness similar to the mysterious human respiratory disease SARS, and it is now almost certain that the coronavirus causes the disease, a World Health Organization official said here today.Experiments on animals are necessary because the lack of an effective treatment for SARS and the relatively high death rate make it unethical to conduct such experiments on humans. Nine patients in Hong Kong died of SARS on Tuesday, setting a new single-day record for such fatalities. Five of those who died were younger than 45 and included a pregnant woman and four patients with no underlying illnesses.
SARSTRACKER ORIGINAL ANAYSIS 
How to read the chart above:
We can estimate the real death rate by Total Deaths / Resolved Cases (Deaths + Recoveries). Applying this rate to total cases gives the estimated total deaths given the existing number of cases.
Lag: You can also determine the average time for cases to "resolve" - this is the difference between today's date, and the date when the existing number of cases was the same as today's total resolved cases. Based on this lag, you can further estimate how long it will take for present cases to resolve thus estimating the daily average deaths between now and then. Note: this does NOT estimate total deaths from SARS as no assumption is made about the growths in cases. this simply estimates deaths from existing cases to date.
|
|
|
Tuesday, April 15, 2003
Posted
7:31 PM
High-speed test for Sars launched
Telegraph UK - Hamburg-based Artus said its test can detect the presence of Sars in two hours, whereas traditional tests for antibodies take more than 10 days. More: Singapore to Unveil It's Own Test 
Exposure to SARS in Toronto Raises Chance of Its Spread
New York Times TORONTO, April 15 - The possibility that severe acute respiratory syndrome could be spreading to the Toronto population at large increased significantly with the news that 500 members of a Roman Catholic church group had been exposed to the disease March 28 and may have passed it to others. At least one member was infected at the Scarborough Grace Hospital, where the initial outbreak in Toronto began last month. That person later attended a Mass where hundreds had gathered. The following day many in the group also attended a retreat. In early April, several members of the church group attended the funeral of a person who was later determined to have died of SARS. Health officials now know that some people who attended the funeral had the disease at the time. Within the religious group, 29 probable and suspected cases have been identified. One doctor who was treating the group was also infected.
|
|
|
Monday, April 14, 2003
Posted
9:54 PM
SARSTRACKER ORIGINAL ANAYSIS How Bad Is It Really??? 
Death / ( Death + Recoveries ) = Real Death Rate Those still ill should be excluded from calculations as some will die; including them assumes all will recover which is FALSE. Are health authorities understating the death rate to help prevent panic??? Korean Claims Kimchi Prevents SARS
SEOUL Financial Times - The South Korean Rural Development Agency said the large amount of garlic in kimchi might explain why none of the country's 48m people had yet succumbed to Sars. Beijingers turn to turnips as SARS cure
BEIJING Reuters - Turnip prices have jumped in Beijing after the vegetable was touted as a key ingredient in a potion to fight the deadly virus that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, peddlers said.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted
9:03 PM
German Firm Distributes First SARS Test Worldwide
BERLIN Reuters - Hamburg-based Artus GmbH said it had developed the test for the virus causing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) with the nearby Bernhard-Nocht-Institute (BNI) for Tropical Medicine in just two weeks and had begun distributing it free. They said classical tests for antibodies typically took 10 to 20 days after infection.
|
|
Posted
8:29 PM
 Messages of Support to Health Workers at MRT Station
 No Kissing Allowed:
Malaysians have been told not to kiss the cross this Easter in order to prevent the spread of SARS
|
|
Posted
6:07 PM
The Lassen Model: Click the image for some math on transmission rates... 
|
|
Posted
3:22 AM
ESP - Electronic Sars Protection
We know what you're thinking... OK no we don't! But we know where you are! Close Circuit TV and Electronic tagging are now protection Singapore from potential quarantine busters. From ERP to ESP...What Next?!
|
|
Posted
2:16 AM
Evidence shows children may escape worst of SARS virus
Reuters - Doctors are trying to explain why a virus that moves with relative ease through the adult population, so far infecting 3,000 worldwide with more than 100 dead, has come up against something of an immunological wall when it comes to youngsters.
|
|
|
Sunday, April 13, 2003
Posted
11:15 PM
Singapore's containment weakens
As per the chart above, from 30th March to 8 April, Singapore had the best success with containing the growth of SARS. However, over recent days, this record has been lost. The week-on-week growth figure grew to 46% as of April 12th. This compares poorly to 39% for Hong Kong and 36% for Canada. As per the article below, this deterioriation is blamed on the late isolation of a super-spreader...
|
|
Posted
10:59 PM
"People buying them so they feel comfortable riding the subway doesn't make a lot of sense. We're just not going to encourage silliness because we don't want to see a shortage of masks."
- Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization, noted a run on masks could cause a shortage for those who do need them - the sick and those treating them. source
|
|
Posted
10:24 PM
A few SARS stories from Toronto...
Recent increases in the numbers of SARS cases were expected as the containment team became aware of a few incidents where people who came down with the virus exposed others. In one case, several members of a family became ill shortly after attending a wake at a funeral home. It was later discovered the deceased had died of SARS. In another case, an employee of a Hewlett-Packard plant in Markham, Ont., who was supposed to be quarantined, went to work anyway while suffering SARS symptoms. He is currently in hospital, in serious condition, with the disease. One colleague is a suspect SARS case and 196 other colleagues are in quarantine And One from Singapore...
...The woman doctor had aching muscles on March 29 but carried on working even on March 31 when she had a fever. She operated on the patient that Monday. She is now seriously ill at TTSH. Like Dr Ong Hok Su who died last week, she took off her oxygen mask to go to the bathroom and almost collapsed.
|
|
Posted
10:16 PM
Hong Kong officials launch investigation after SARS kills younger, fitter patients
Star - Health officials said Monday they were trying to figure out why six relatively young SARS patients with no aggravating illnesses have died in recent days. On a radio show Monday, Liu said some of the younger patients came to the hospital when they were already in a serious condition and their conditions worsened even after they received intensive care. More: Fit victims spark Sars worry
|
|
Posted
10:10 PM
Death from SARS much higher than reported
See the chart below prepared by this blogger. If you correct for time, the death rate is much higher than we are being told. People don't die from SARS the minute they are reported as a SARS cases. There is a time lag between when they are first admitted to when they die. So if we divide the number of deaths by the number of cases 7 and 14 days earlier, we get a better idea of the real death rate. Presently, the global death rate (excluding China because those figures are highly unreliable) based on deaths / cases 7 & 14 days earlier is 5.1% and 8.2%. The figures for Canada and Singapore and are much higher but Hong Kong is doing relatively well: | 7 day correction | 14 day correction | | Canada | 13.5% | 27.0% | | Hong Kong | 4.4% | 7.7% | | Singapore | 8.9% | 10.1% | In the Canadian outbreak, the higher case-fatality ratio appears to be linked to the older age of the patients, who frequently have underlying chronic disease.
|
|
Posted
9:45 PM
Late Isolation blamed for Rise in Singapore Cases
WHO 12 April - "WHO has collaborated with health authorities in investigations and contact tracing that have linked most cases in the hospital outbreaks to a single “super-spreader.” This patient was treated at Ton Tock Seng Hospital (sic) from 5 to 20 March, where he is thought to have become infected. He was subsequently admitted to Singapore General Hospital on 24 March. The patient showed a very atypical clinical course before being isolated on 2 April. This late isolation is thought to explain, in part, the large number of exposed and infected individuals linked to the single patient."
|
|
|
|
|
Posted
9:30 PM
US is Listed as SARS affected area
In their 12 April Summary Report, the WHO stated "On Friday, WHO added Beijing, China to its list of SARS-affected areas. Areas are added to the list following indication that chains of local transmission are occurring." As of 12 April, local transmission in the USA has been acknowledged (see these stats). The finding is not surprising given that the US had over 150 reported cases (albeit subject to their unique definition). - more than Canada, Singapore or Vietnam. They now join London as the newest members of the Affected Areas list.
|
|
|
|
![[Powered by Blogger]](http://buttons.blogger.com/bloggerbutton1.gif){kind=small}
