Posted 11:18 PM

News From SARSnews. To Join Visit HERE. From: "ken_lassesen" <ken@lassesen.xxx> I've gone thru the news releases tallying the ages reported. I have also reworked the page so people can verify all of the numbers that I am using... http://lassesen.com/sars/deaths_by_age.htm Short version below Age Probability of death 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-99    2.4% 6.7% 4.8% 6.1% 5.4% 7.4% 16.3% 18.5% 39.6% 58.1% 65.6% 82.1% I understand that the Great Flu pandemic in 1918-1919, killed only 1% of people aged 35-45. SARS appears to be a more fatal illness. "The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%." http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/ *SARSnews : Keeping the Community Informed* To Subscribe to this group, send an email to: SARSnews-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Posted 9:24 PM

SARS Mysteries
One of the recent new probable cases is a death reclassified as SARS. The CNA report reads:

"The second case is the 72-year-old grandfather who infected his three grandchildren. The grandfather, a worker at the Pasir Panjang Wholesale Centre, was admitted on 19 April as a suspect case...

The third case is the wife of the 72-year-old grandfather. The 67-year-old wife had died on 15 APRIL of heart failure, after suffering a fever, a bad cough and chest pains."

The 72yo man is famed for being the patriarch of the "reckless" family that did a walkabout in a hawker centre while waiting for their ambulance. He was classified as probable yesterday while his daughter and grandkids became probable on the 21st.

He supposedly got SARS from the Pasir Panjang source (brother of SGH source - aiyah! what a family) who infected at least 9 people both at work and at NUH. But all those infections were reported around 15-19 April by which time the Walkabout family's grandmother was already DEAD.

So my question is this:
Is it feasible that the path of transmission in this case originates from the SGH source/Pasir panjang source or did she acquire the virus earlier and by coincidence Pasir Panjang has been hit by two different sources?

Of course there's a lag between infection and reporting... but is it sufficient enough that one person could drop dead before another even shows symptoms?

Typhoid Bill
It's interesting to note that the 72yo grandfather has FINALLY been moved from suspected to probable even though he infected at least 4 people. The delay was because he hadn't developed any chest condition per x-rays. Is he an example of a "Typhoid Mary"? IE a carrier who remains relatively healthy?

And somebody please tell me how a 72 year old man in the midst of a SARS outbreak stays fit so long. Garlic? Kimchi? Turnip?! Tell me!!!

Posted 8:13 PM

We may never get a true picture of the crisis. Many Sars patients cannot get proper medical treatment simply because they do not have the money for health care. When these patients die, their cause of death may not be attributed to Sars. This is especially true in the countryside, where the nearest hospital can be several hundred kilometres away. People in such places may never have heard of Sars, much less been diagnosed with it; 65 per cent of the mainland's population lives in the countryside.
       - South China Morning Post

Posted 9:09 AM

I have just discovered an odd thing. The updates to this blog cannot be viewed from my home computer which access the web through Magix (Singapore Telecom). At the office there is no problem. I have thoroughly cleaned my cache and refreshed infinitum. I've even rebooted... but on both my browsers (yes I still have a copy of Netscape) I have the same problem. The last entry seen is April 17. Very Odd... If anyone can offer a reasonable explanation for this please let me know by leaving a comment! Thanks.

Posted 1:57 AM

YOU know that the scientists scrambling to unravel the mysteries behind Sars are leaving no stone unturned when two have ventured that the virus is actually a cometary microbe. From outer space, in other words. According to the two UK-based astrobiologists, the Sars virus may have entered the earth's atmosphere in the Himalayas - a stone's throw from western China, where it began to wreak havoc.
       - Editorial. Business Times, Singapore

Posted 1:00 AM

  SARSTRACKER ANAYSIS 

The table above estimates future deaths from SARS based on historic data. It is based on existing cases ie it forecasts the number of fatalities from current probably cases without making any estimation for future cases. So for Singapoer the graph reads "8 more deaths expected in the next 18 days."

The graph below shows the actual deaths versus the forecast deaths using this method. China has had far more deaths than predicted whereas Canada has done relatively well. I suspect teh Chinese poor performance is as a result of being more accountable for the real toll from SARS.

Actual deaths less predicted deaths

Posted 12:59 AM

let your fingers do the walking

Posted 12:15 AM

Virus Is Mutating Rapidly
Washington Post Foreign Service - Yang Huanming, one of China's best-known geneticists, said the work has shown significant differences between virus samples from patients in Guangzhou and in Beijing, indicating that the virus is mutating rapidly. He said samples already sequenced in the United States and Canada were similar to the Guangzhou samples because the American and Canadian samples came from people who caught the disease in southern China. But when researchers did sequencing of samples collected in Beijing, about 1,200 miles to the north, they detected significant differences from the southern strain.

Posted 8:47 PM

Total Cases

Posted 6:58 PM

SARS Treatment May Be Killing Some Patients
The Standard - Secretary for Health, Medical experts are now examining whether the drug cocktail of ribavirin and steroids was responsible for some of the coronavirus pneumonia deaths in Hong Kong. The probe was ordered after autopsies on seven people who died of the killer disease revealed that, apart from severe lung damage, other organs like the heart and kidneys were also affected. Medical experts are now studying whether the side effects from the current treatment had caused the failure of the patients' organs, or whether it triggered their deaths. In their analysis using the treatment records of 138 SARS patients at Prince of Wales Hospital, experts found 18 of them had also suffered from a bacterial infection as the steroids had depressed their immune systems. These 18 patients are still under intensive care.

More:
Most Sars patients take well to Ribavirin
While most patients respond positively to this treatment — first recommended for usage by Hong Kong — some may suffer from an array of side effects such as nausea, anaemia and damage to foetuses and kidneys.

Posted 6:38 PM

Has Your Cabbie Been Checked?

In addition to regular temperature checks, cab drivers in Singapore have to drive with the window rolled down from today...

Singapore's prime minister has vowed to jail people who violate quarantine orders imposed to contain the spread of SARS, and lashed at "irresponsible" citizens ignoring dangers posed by the epidemic.

Posted 2:06 AM

Stupidity Accentuated & Revealed Syndrome
Telegraph India A Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) patient rushed out of a Pune hospital last evening, got married and came back to the isolation ward, with her brand-new husband and 30 invitees.

SARS Family Put 77 in Quarantine
CNA Four of the eight family members who ignored a doctor’s advice to wait for an ambulance are now down with Sars.The doctor had given them masks to wear and told them to wait for an ambulance to take them to Tan Tock Seng Hospital. Instead, they removed their masks and, over the next four hours, went to S11, a coffee shop in Serangoon North, as well as Hock Hua Ginseng at Serangoon Central Drive. Now, a total of 77 people including other family members and people from the clinic, ginseng shop and coffee shop are under home quarantine.

So where was the ambulance for FOUR HOURS?

Posted 8:44 PM

Corona Not Responsible
Times UK Scientists searching for a cure for severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) have suffered a setback after finding that the virus blamed for the potentially fatal disease was not present in most patients taken ill. “Only 40 per cent of the people with what we call Sars have the corona virus. We have found no other virus but the connection between Sars and corona is actually very weak,” said Dr Frank Plummer, scientific director of the Canadian National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg.

Too bad we made all those monkeys sick.

Posted 2:17 AM

SARS SMS
AP - Hong Kong With a few button punches on their handset keypads, subscribers can request a text message that lists all the SARS-affected buildings within a kilometer (0.62 mile) of the calling location....

Posted 2:05 AM

Posted 7:01 PM

The Equal Opportunity Germ
"One key reason for the view that SARS may be positive impetus for change is that it is not confined to the developing world, where infectious disease has for years been a major killer. This is an equal opportunity germ. Hong Kong, one of Asia's most affluent cities, has been the hardest hit of any single locale, and victims come from all walks of life."
                  - Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 April

Posted 3:21 AM

Where The Bug Bites: Sunday Straits Times Compilation
Data shows risk of infection in general comunity remains very low.

Infections outside of the healthcare system include:

• SIA stewardess on the NY-Frankfurt flight carrying Singapore doctor infected with SARS
• Man infected at Pasir Panjang Market
• Two Taxi drivers who may have caught the bug from passengers

Posted 12:04 AM

Man Infected with SARS was at large for 1 week
The MOH detailed the movements of one of the latest SARS cases in their 20 April report. He contracted the virus at Between 8-16 april he visited his GP twice, Hougang Polyclinic and 2 or 3 Chinese Sinseh before being warded at TTSH. This incredible walkabout will keep the virus tracers busy for some time.

In the meantime, those who visited Pasir Panjang Wholesale Market during these times are asked to contact authorities if illness develops:

Monday: 5 April 03 from 1 am - 11 am
Wednesday: 7 April 03 from 7 am - 9 am
Thrusday: 8 April 03 from 6 am - 9 am.

Pasir Panjang Wholesale Market, the source of 75% of fresh produce in Singapore, is now closed for 3 days and wokers at the market under quarantine for 10 days so the market is effectiely closed until April 29. Panic buying has been seen in some places though price increases have been minimal.

Posted 8:08 PM

Hong Kong publishes Death Stats by Age
Following is a list of Clinical SARS Cases and Deaths as at April 15, 2003:

Overall 68 per cent of all deaths have co-existing illnesses.

It's being suggested that the low rate of SARS amongst young people could be because they do not display severe symptoms (eg they might have a low grade fever instead of high grade and are thus not suspected of having SARS). This means they could be undetected CARRIERS of the virus.