Posted 3:17 AM

Singapore has but three cases of SARS left in hospital now. Our epidemic is over. Not so in my homeland! But that's another story and not mine to tell.

Therefore my updates are coming to an end. The excel file has some very interesting analysis and I'll try to keep it updated on a weekly basis.

But no more cool graphs!

If this event has captured your imagination, please remember that AIDS kills more people daily than have been killed by the entire SARS epidemic. Imagine if we put the same resources into stopping AIDS as we did into stopping SARS!

Thanks for giving me the soap box.

Posted 3:10 AM

The Excel Datasheet has been updated with 26 June WHO figures.

Posted 8:47 PM

The Excel Datasheet has been updated with 12 June WHO figures.

I was away for a week doing a marathon bike ride (well 950 butt breaking kilometres) raising money for AIDS (which kills way more people than SARS by the way).

So what happend while I was gone?!!! Canada has had more SARS cases in the past 10 days than China - IS THIS POSSIBLE? What the hell are those canucks doing? OK I will reserve further comment until my passport renewal is processed.

SHILS - So Happy I Live In Singapore!

Posted 7:06 PM

Please note that I'm away for the next week raising money for Action For AIDS on their bi-annual Riding For Life charity drive. 900Km of cycling in 38C heat! Wish me luck!

Posted 7:04 PM

The Excel Datasheet has been updated with 29th May WHO figures.

Taiwan has finally surpassed China as having the highest SARS risk! What a mess. See the file for details.

Posted 6:12 PM

Is Hong Kong really safe?
The Excel Datasheet has been updated with 24th May WHO figures.

According to my risk ranking - no (see below for definition).

The indicators of risk are the number of new cases in the last 10 days and the number of sick people still in the system. Until Hong Kong drops below a raitng of "6" I think that they are far from all clear. The fact the WHO has taken them off their list of worst affected countries seems to indicate a change in criteria.

Just for your info, here's the list of the highest number of cases reported during any 10 day period for various countries...

Posted 11:12 PM

Posted 9:03 PM

More on the young deaths...

This is the same graph as the one below with Hong Kong data added in. Hong Kong appears in the middle between SGP and TO. The HK data is "smoother" because there are more data points (ie more deaths). I've also added some transparency to the HK data so you can see that at the top end, there are more HK cases than Canadian cases (ie more cases over the age of 80).

Because of the number of cases, the HK data probably paints a more accurate depiction of the death toll of SARS.

Yet again, the Singapore numbers are alarmingly "young" giving rise to many questions: Is there a different virus in Singapore (a different strain)? Is the pattern of transmission different? Is treatment in Singapore less effective or inappropriate for younger victims?

The data does suggest that if you get SARS then Canada is the best place to be to get proper care... unless of course they simply had an unusual number of old people getting the virus.

One thought that pops to mind: has Singaporean's overuse of antibiotics had some negative effect on their immune systems such that they cannot cope as well with this virus? At least one of the young fatalities was not a Singapore national (a Philippino nurse) so this might nto be the answer...

Posted 8:13 PM

The Excel Datasheet has been updated with 22nd May WHO figures.

Posted 9:22 PM

Why are so many young people dying in Singapore?
Here's a graph of the deaths in Singapore and Toronto with Singapore in the foreground. Age is on the left axis. Blue & pink represent male and female victims.

The average age of deaths in Singapore is significantly younger... WHY? Yesterday the 5th person under the age of 30 died of SARS in Singapore. Yet in Canada there is only one case under the age of 40. This is very worrying.

Posted 8:34 PM

The Excel Datasheet has been updated with 21st May WHO figures.

Posted 7:36 PM

The Excel Datasheet has been updated with 20th May WHO figures.